Newt Gingrich, the granting of a double-digit victory for Mitt Romney in the state of Carolina primary on Saturday, the South, the GOP has done a wonderful thing: It is proven that Obama, one of the most vulnerable holders recent memory, is even more luck than anyone imagined. And it was known to be very lucky already.
Consider: in 2004, and soaked for two of its rivals in the Illinois Senate in scandals between spouses, and the other was Alan Keyes. Hillary Clinton could have won the presidential race in 2008 if the staff has figured out how to store the delegates of the smaller countries. Obama was really the loss of John McCain in September 2008. Then Lehman Brothers collapsed and the Arizona senator was crazy. Obama looked like the Mount Rushmore-esque in comparison.
The President and the good fortune seems to be back in time for the 2012 elections. Stronger than the governor of new competitors in New Jersey Republican Chris Christie potential, Texas Gov. Mitch Daniels, Justice Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the state of Florida Jeep former Governor Bush and the rejection of all to run, despite the procession of strong players the power of the conservatives. At the same time, it has become the most powerful Republicans to make the leap (Romney) to be a supporter of federal stimulus plans and the author of the reforms, which eventually became Obamacare. Hard to attack someone for doing something, not yourself (or have done).
However, South Carolina Obama is lucky, to another level. At the end of last week, critics insisted that there is a more reasonable scenario to move forward: Romney takes Palmetto State concludes the nomination in late January. That was bad for Obama because the Republican attacks on Romney was over and the attacks on Obama, Romney and increased density.
But now there are two possible outcomes, both of which appear to be more optimistic for the President. The first is that Romney is still to win the nomination, but not this month or next, or even the one after that. As Howard Fineman reports, the Republican Party now slapfast last "at least until the month of May" - "not only because it seemed to be a true three runs in the near future (or at least two and a middle path) participation Gingrich, Romney and Paul, but because the primary program, and the Republican Party in the state by state standards for the selection of delegates. "
The concession speech Saturday, Romney said that competition for long periods of time is "doing our best season." But the evidence suggests otherwise. Glove not supported over time in the primaries and caucuses, or is to deliver, as happened in New Hampshire, or stopped by, as is the case in the state of Iowa in the state of South Carolina , squandered 14 points in a matter of days.
Moreover, by attacking the Republicans and Bain Capital, which Romney belongs, Newt, in particular, is gaining momentum and expand the DNC in the long-planned attack on the logic of the campaign from the dead: the potential for job creation alleged. The attack is the group: since December, and negative reactions to the experience of Payne Romney had increased by more than 75 percent among Republicans, Gingrich, Romney and is not, that prevailed among the voters of South Carolina, more worried about the economy. Payne will be the issue is not going to disappear before the fall, Obama simply move the Gingrich advertisements in the attack is inevitable, which will air as most Americans first established in the elections. In fact, there is a real danger that Romney will be John Kerry in 2012: Event Bay Stater who is hated because it was running its own momentum for Kerry a war hero, artist Romney's economic transformation, but then I saw the release of his strongest point transferred to the weakness of their elders.
In any case, the conclusion is that the Romney camp chose to follow the "inevitable" practiced by the rules of the game for some reason. They wanted to win quickly with minimum bloodshed. They do not want a long slog.
The second scenario also involves hard work time. It is unlikely, but after Saturday, you can: Gingrich, who refused to vote is 13 percentage points higher than the rate of support for him, and somehow just won the nomination. This will be a good thing that ever happened to Obama. You are blocking the appointment of amateurness Gingrich when he was on stage at the debate, which is where most voters had faced. But along the way, is inevitable. As I wrote on Saturday, "nontraditionalness level on the screen [in the events of the campaign Newt, to borrow a phrase, just deep, so deep, frankly, that makes it hard to imagine Gingrich ever really be able to step front and face to face with the process of re-election of President Obama ultrasophisticated. "
An example of this. In the log here in South Carolina, and Gingrich was promising voters that he constantly "challenge the president to seven three-hour debate in the tradition, Lincoln Douglas" If you reject Obama, Newt followed, simply becomes heat . "When we arrived in Tampa in my acceptance speech, announcing that the White House will be my schedule," he told the crowd in Beaufort on Thursday. "Wherever the president appear after four hours. I do not think it will take a few weeks for me to refute the discourse in a systematic way to arrive at the White House say they want a dialogue."
The public, of course, applauded. But Gingrich is a phantom plan imagination of teachers who demonstrate precisely why the dispersion, and the shoestring campaign style of improvisation, Obama will be a tight game, high-tech giant billion. They say it happens in reality. Obama keeps all equipment in the last weeks of the plan in advance. They say the picturesque site. They recruited a handful of enthusiastic attendees. They sharpen their voter-registration techniques. Statements are prepared by the President. Then and only then, after a few days notice, will not advertise where and when this event will take place. At this point, the team must fight to catch Gingrich, and fighting in the time (and probably fail) from 11 to attract a similar number of supporters and book a place in the presidential elections alike. It will be a variation in the width, in the evening news, online, on Twitter, for all to see. As a result, the end result will look like a desperate newt, beta candidate is organized, who left his opponent dictate the terms of which are shared, what will be. Obama will be very, very lucky.
On Friday, I met a voter whose name Laura Snipes in the case of Gingrich in Orangeburg. He was 64 and just lost her $ 500 to $ 1000 per week working in bars, so it has taken to selling Avon beauty products to pay the bills. The policy is not static in particular. "I always vote for the man," he said. "It's not the game." She said she wanted to come to the event because it was given Newt supporters in the primaries on Saturday. But in reality, was not impressed with the Republican camp.
"Frankly, I prefer Obama on what I've seen so far, to re-enter," said Lee Snipes. "You can go in a few years, and straighten the manipulation. I mean, I think he is trying. He made mistakes. [But] men are not better."
If Gingrich's victory means nothing, is that undecided voters will come to the same results as Snipes: "These men are not better."
The first lines of "Let's stay together," goes a little something like this: "I'm so in love with you / All I want to do / There is nothing wrong with me." I can hear the chants of Obama now.
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